Greenhouse gas induced changes in the fire risk in Brazil in ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model

Vegetation fires are the second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere. The reduction of the climatic impact of these emissions is related to the vegetation susceptibility to fire (fire risk), as well as to the understanding of possible implications of changes in atmospheric circulation on fire risk in the nearfuture. This study evaluates the environmental susceptibility to fire occurrence based on a Potential Fire Index (PFI). Two climate simulations from the ECHAM5/MPIOM climate model have been used to calculate the PFI: present day (1980–2000) and an experiment for the end of the twenty-first century (2080–2100). The results indicate that the proposed PFI methodology could properly reproduce the areas with the highest fire incidence under present conditions. Moreover, it was found that under greenhouse warming conditions the PFI foresees an increase in the fire risk area, particularly for the Amazon region. We concluded, furthermore, that changes of vegetation predicted to occur in the future lead to substantial modifications in the magnitude of the PFI, and may potentially extend the length of the fire season due to induced longer drought periods as compared to current conditions. F. Justino (B) · A. S. de Mélo · G. C. Sediyama · J. P. Machado Departamento de Engenharia Agrícola, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, Brazil e-mail: [email protected] A. Setzer · R. Sismanoglu Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticas, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São José dos Campos, Brazil G. A. Ribeiro Departamento de Engenharia Florestal, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, Brazil A. Sterl Climate Research & Seismology, Global Climate, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 201, 3730 AE De Bilt, The Netherlands 286 Climatic Change (2011) 106:285–302